2024 ELECTION PREDICTIONS
Each presidential election year, I put together charts for clients, friends and collaborators detailing my evolving thoughts on the outcome of the federal elections. I make my choices based on a review of polls, Sabato, Cook and gut. I have updated these charts every two weeks since early September.
Below are my final predictions for the November 5, 2024, election.
Keep me honest and give me your thoughts!
November 4, 2024
Final: 276 (Harris-Walz) – 262 (Trump-Vance) (No change from 10-22-24)
All seven battleground states have an RCP polling average that is within the margin of error. And that hasn’t shifted in weeks. Given how the outcome of these battlegrounds stands at the edge of a knife, this is either going to be nail-biting close or it has the potential for one of these candidates to run away with it.
And think about this: let’s say I’m correct on everything except Nevada and NE-2. That would leave us with a 269-269 tie!
Hard to see this race being decided Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
I am making the following two moves though neither change my 10-22-24 prediction of Harris winning 276 to 262:
NE-2 moves from Toss up to Lean Dem
Iowa moves from Solid/Safe Rep to Likely Rep
Final: 219 Dem — 216 Rep (No Change from 10-22-24)
It is looking more and more like the CA races will determine control of the House. This means that it is unlikely we will know the final outcome for possibly a week or more given the high number of mail-in ballots that will need to be counted there (in CA, your mail-in ballot just needs to be postmarked on Election Day thus taking some time for these ballots to work their way through the mail stream).
Lots of shifts this week, but it doesn’t alter my 10-22-24 prediction that Democrats win the House 219-216:
AZ-2 moves from Solid/Safe Rep to Likely Rep
CA-22 moves from Tossup Dem win to Tossup Rep win
IL-7 moves from Lean Dem to Likely Dem
MD-6 moves from Lean Dem to Likely Dem
MI-7 moves from Tossup Rep win to Tossup Dem win
MN-2 moves from Lean Dem to Likely Dem
NC-1 moves from Tossup to Lean Dem
NE-2 moves from Tossup to Lean Dem
NY-17 moves from Tossup Dem win to Tossup Rep win
OH-13 moves from Tossup Rep win to Tossup Dem win
OR-6 moves from Lean Dem to Likely Dem
PA-7 moves from Tossup to Lean Dem
PA-8 moves from Lean Dem to Tossup (with Dem ultimately winning)
Final: 52 Rep — 48 Dem (No Change from 10-22-24)
I am making the following two moves, though neither change my 10-22-24 prediction of Republicans winning the Senate 52-48:
Nebraska (Fischer) moves from Likely Rep to Lean Rep
Pennsylvania moves from Lean Dem to Tossup (with Dem ultimately winning)
Previous Predictions: